India's Monsoon Stumbles: After a Dry June, July Likely to Stay Below Normal Too

India's monsoon season has had a rocky start. The India Meteorological Department, the country's official weather forecasting agency, announced that June 2026 ended with a massive rainfall shortfall and that July is unlikely to fully make up for it.

The weather department had predicted that June would receive about 92 percent of its usual rainfall. Instead, the month delivered only around 60 percent of normal levels, making it the fifth driest June since reliable records began in 1901. Just a week before the month ended, June was even on track to become the driest ever recorded, before a late surge in rains pulled the total up to 99.5 millimetres, still far below the typical 165.3 millimetres expected.

Looking ahead, the weather department now says July will also see below-normal rainfall, expected to stay under 94 percent of the long-term average. This is the first time the department has issued a separate monthly forecast specifically for July; in the past, only June's forecast was released this early, with the full season's outlook updated only at the end of July.

There is a silver lining, though. July is traditionally the wettest month of the four-month monsoon season, contributing nearly a third of the season's total rainfall. While it too is expected to fall short of normal, officials say it should perform noticeably better than June did. The first week of July is expected to bring widespread rain across most of the country, continuing the improvement seen in the final days of June.

The department also flagged that temperatures are likely to run above normal across most of the country in July, with only a few pockets in west-central India staying near or below normal.

Why did June fall so short? According to the weather department, the main culprits were the absence of low-pressure systems that typically pull in heavy rain, a generally weak monsoon wind flow, and the lack of helpful global weather patterns such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which usually triggers strong bursts of rainfall when active.

Interestingly, El Nino, a Pacific Ocean climate pattern known to suppress Indian monsoon rains, played only a minor role in June's deficit, just as forecasters had expected. However, weak El Nino conditions currently present in the Pacific are expected to strengthen through July, which could further dent rainfall and push temperatures higher in the months ahead.

Back in May, before the season began, the weather department had projected that the overall four-month monsoon would bring only about 90 percent of normal rainfall, with the developing El Nino expected to weaken rains mainly in August and September while leaving June and July largely unaffected. June's steep shortfall now raises questions about that original outlook, and the department is expected to revisit its full-season forecast at the end of July, once more data is in.